In a fragmented world, new dynamics are emerging, bringing innovation, sovereignty and momentum.

A multipolar trade war

While economic tensions between the United States and China remain at the centre of geopolitical attention, a broader, more systemic dynamic is taking shape on a global scale. Since Trump took office, the United States has begun to break with multilateral trade. The Sino-American tariff war has paved the way for a widespread shift towards protectionism. Donald Trump has announced a universal 10% tariff on all US imports. In addition, "Liberation Day" explicitly aims to reorganise value chains towards the United States on a political rather than economic basis. This growing fragmentation of global trade is accompanied by the emergence of a number of economic "mini-blocs". The logic behind economic alliances is now evolving around considerations of technological security, energy sovereignty and the stability of critical supplies (e.g. rare earths, batteries). This "reshoring" is driving a wave of record capital expenditure, with winners in infrastructure (CRH, Martin Marietta, Quanta Services), manufacturing (Caterpillar, Emerson), electrical equipment (Eaton, Schneider, ABB) and critical semiconductor supply chains (Texas Instrument, Lam Research, KLA, Applied Materials). The trade war is therefore no longer a simple Sino-American rivalry: it is becoming a global reconfiguration of flows, in which cooperation is subordinate to power relations. Trade is becoming a tool of influence, and industrial policy a central instrument in the new multipolar geo-economy.

The war in Ukraine, a catalyst for a cycle of reconstruction

The war in Ukraine has already caused more than $500 billion in direct damage to infrastructure, according to the World Bank, and reconstruction needs are estimated at more than $1 trillion over ten years. The sectors most affected include construction (housing, transport infrastructure), energy (electricity grids, production capacity), telecommunications and healthcare. Construction companies (Vinci, Hochtief, Strabag), materials producers (Holcim, HeidelbergCement) and energy equipment manufacturers (Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric) are well positioned to benefit from this cyclical demand. The United States, which has pledged more than $70 billion in aid since 2022, also wants to play a role in the reconstruction. Their companies (engineering, infrastructure, dual technologies) are already seeking to secure key contracts. Europe, for its part, sees a strategic opportunity to integrate Ukraine in order to secure its supply chains, particularly for critical metals. However, the lack of visibility on the outcome of the conflict is currently holding back the effective roll-out of plans.

Deepseek and the awakening of the AI ecosystem in China

The emergence of Deepseek, a high-performance Chinese open-source model developed with limited resources, has reignited the debate on the economic sustainability of the massive investments made by Western giants (OpenAI, Meta, Google). Some see this as a warning sign: the returns on large-scale LLMs (Large Language Models) may struggle to justify the tens of billions invested. However, this observation needs to be qualified. Hyperscalers continue to deploy record budgets (Microsoft $80 billion in AI capex, Meta $68 billion) and benefit from unique leverage effects (cloud, chips, data, product integration) that challengers cannot match. The momentum created by Deepseek is not a reversal but an expansion: it has acted as a wake-up call in China, catalysing a mobilisation of the national tech sector (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Baidu), which has long lagged behind in generative AI. Despite restrictions on access to American chips, these groups have managed to develop competitive models optimised for local architecture. AI is therefore no longer a transatlantic monopoly: it is becoming a truly global issue, with China now fully engaged in the race.

Artificial intelligence faces the energy wall

The massive deployment of generative artificial intelligence is causing an explosion in energy demand. Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion over a year to build new data centres dedicated to AI. Meta, for its part, has revised its investment budget for 2025 upwards to $64-72 billion, an increase of 83% compared to 2024. These energy-intensive infrastructures are putting increasing pressure on electricity grids to such an extent that Microsoft has begun to slow down or suspend certain data centre projects, citing local saturation and a need for rationalisation. According to projections by the International Energy Agency, global data centre electricity consumption could triple by 2030, partly due to AI models, and exceed that of entire countries such as Japan and Germany. In this context, winners are emerging: utilities (NextEra, Constellation, National Grid), equipment manufacturers (Vertiv, Schneider Electric) and graphics processor suppliers such as Nvidia. Furthermore, this boom also raises challenges in terms of sustainability, resource location and coordination between tech and utilities. AI is not only redefining uses: it is also redrawing the global energy map.

The renaissance of nuclear power

The rise of artificial intelligence has disrupted global energy balances, creating unprecedented demand for stable, abundant, low-carbon electricity to power data centres. Faced with the limitations of intermittent energy sources such as renewables and network constraints, nuclear power is returning to the forefront as an essential stable, carbon-free source of supply. After more than a decade of disinvestment, the sector is experiencing a revival: governments are relaunching programmes (United States, France, South Korea), markets are revaluing existing players and new projects are emerging around small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Nuclear power ticks all the boxes: low carbon footprint, technological sovereignty and continuous production. This comeback is also strategic in a world marked by tensions over energy supplies (Ukraine, the Middle East, gas shortages). How can investors play this theme? Three areas dominate: technology players such as Doosan Enerbility, GE Vernova, Rolls-Royce, NuScale and Oklo; raw materials, with uranium as a direct proxy (Cameco, Yellow Cake); and peripheral suppliers and engineering companies such as Schneider Electric, EATON, Fluor and SPIE. Far from being a relic of the past, nuclear power is becoming a cornerstone of the post-carbon era.

Completed on 24/06/2025

A world in flux, horizons to build

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